Ukraine's illegal gambling market is not retreating — it's accelerating. New research commissioned by the Association of Ukrainian Gaming Business Operators and conducted by international firm KANTAR reveals that the unlicensed segment now accounts for 56.7% of the total gambling market in monetary terms, reaching at least $1.38 billion (61.6 billion UAH) in 2026. The data is a serious warning signal for regulators, licensed operators, and the broader iGaming industry in the region.
What Happened: KANTAR Research Exposes a Growing Black Market
The findings come from KANTAR's second major study on Ukraine's gambling landscape, conducted between March and May 2026 across a sample of 2,500 respondents. The results are unambiguous: the illegal market's share has grown from 52.1% in 2025 to 56.7% in 2026 — a nearly five-percentage-point jump in a single year.
The scale is striking. Over 80.6% of surveyed players admitted to having used an unlicensed online casino or illegal betting platform within the last three months. This is not a fringe behavior — it is the dominant pattern of consumption in Ukraine's gambling market today.
Why are players choosing illegal operators? KANTAR identified the top reasons:
- Payout speed — cited by 49% of respondents
- No play restrictions — 44%
- Better bonuses — 37%
- Tax optimization opportunities — 25%
- Easier registration process — 18%
- Crypto payouts and deposits — 6%
- Bypassing legal age restrictions — 2%
Why It Matters: The Licensed Market Is Losing the Product War
Alexander Kogut, president of the Association of Ukrainian Gaming Business Operators, did not mince words: the unlicensed segment is growing aggressively and continuing to take share from the legal market. Players are migrating to the gray zone — and the primary drivers are product-level advantages, not price.
Payout speed, bonus structures, registration friction, and crypto flexibility are operational decisions, not regulatory ones. This means that even a perfectly enforced legal framework will struggle to retain players if the licensed product is perceived as inferior. For affiliates operating in the Ukrainian market, this creates a structural challenge: the highest-converting offers increasingly originate from operators who fall outside the legal perimeter.
The data also highlights a tax dimension. One in four players cited tax optimization as a reason for choosing illegal operators — a signal that Ukraine's current tax treatment of gambling winnings is actively pushing players toward non-compliance.
Impact: A Market Drifting Toward 58% Illegal by 2030
The trajectory is concerning. According to forecasts by H2 Gambling Capital, Ukraine's illegal gambling share could reach 58% by 2030 if current dynamics continue. That would represent a market where the majority of gambling activity — by volume and by value — operates entirely outside the regulatory framework.
For the legal market, this means shrinking revenue, reduced tax contributions, and diminishing leverage for operators who invested in licensing. For regulators like PlayCity, it means that enforcement alone — even with tools like the new complaint platform — cannot reverse a trend driven by consumer preference and product gaps. A structural response combining stricter enforcement, faster licensing, tax reform, and product competitiveness requirements will be necessary to reverse the trend.
Source & Verification
All data in this article is sourced from original KANTAR research results as reported by UkraNews and the Association of Ukrainian Gaming Business Operators.
Source: Нелегальний iGaming в Україні перевищує ₴61,6 млрд — UkraNews
KANTAR is a globally recognized market research firm. The study covered 2,500 respondents and represents the second wave of this ongoing research series on Ukraine's gambling market.
