Average daily trading volume on prediction markets rose 55% from September to October 2026, reaching $4.13 billion. That is an all-time record for the industry, according to a report for clients by Jefferies analyst Daniel Fannon.
Sports contracts brought in $2.98 billion a day, up 55%. Non-sports categories grew by the same 55%, to $843 million a day. Activity was driven by the NFL and college football seasons and the start of the 2026/27 NBA season. Growth in the non-sports segment is likely tied to interest in political contracts, Jefferies estimates, as the U.S. Congressional elections approach.
Polymarket increased its average daily volume by 50%, to $655 million, and by 395% year over year. The platform's share among the venues tracked by Jefferies held steady at 17%. Rothera, a joint venture of Robinhood and Susquehanna launched in June, also posted growth.
Open interest, meaning the total value of contracts traders still hold, rose 45% over the month to $3.27 billion, also a record. Sports' share of open interest climbed from 73% in September to 83% in October.
The takeaway for the market is simple: growth rests on sports. October's peak coincided with the American football season and the NBA opening, so one month does not show whether the momentum will last once seasonal demand fades.
