The National Bank of Ukraine is developing a prototype system of AI agents that will reproduce the country's population structure and help spot shifts in inflation expectations faster. The conclusion is set out in the NBU's Inflation Report for October 2026, published on November 5.
The agents will take in macroeconomic data and analyze the tone of news coverage. They model how different population groups react to economic scenarios. So far, the NBU is working only on the prototype.
The method has already been tested in practice. In September 2026, a synthetic AI-based survey flagged a risk of worsening sentiment, and a real survey later confirmed a rise in inflation expectations. In the summer, after strikes on logistics, an AI assistant compiled a register of attacks within a few days and classified 335 components of the consumer price index.
The NBU stresses, however, that AI does not replace expert judgment. Analysts check sources and scenario parameters, and compare new indicators against official statistics.
Context: rising inflation. The NBU forecasts that inflation will accelerate to 12.5% in 2026 and fall to 7.3% by the end of 2027. From July to October, the regulator raised its key policy rate from 15% to 16.5%, partly to restrain inflation expectations.
The document creates no new obligations for market participants. It concerns the regulator's internal analytics. According to the NBU, the tools affect decisions only through the macroeconomic forecast.
