Analysts Nicholas Chen and David Bassey of CreditSights wrote in a report dated October 26 that Macau could still reach the government's 2026 gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast of 236 billion patacas, or about $29.2 billion. To do it, the city needs an average of about $2.02 billion a month in the fourth quarter, or 16.3 billion patacas.
In the first nine months of 2026, Macau casinos brought in almost 187.12 billion patacas, about $23.1 billion, up 3.2% from a year earlier. That is 79% of the annual forecast. The average monthly revenue for the period was about 20.8 billion patacas, against the 19.7 billion patacas a month that the annual target implies, so the pace required in the fourth quarter is lower than the one already achieved.
Macau Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai said in October that the forecast would not be revised. Like the analysts, he called October an important test: whether rising tourist arrivals will translate into higher revenue.
September was the fourth consecutive month of year-on-year GGR decline. CreditSights does not see this as a structural slump. In its view, June and July were distorted by the World Cup, and the roughly 1% drop in August and September is small.
According to CreditSights, a strong finish to the year is supported by the Golden Week holiday in October and by the seasonally stronger quarter that Sands China management has pointed to. Las Vegas Sands Chairman and CEO Patrick Dumont called the third-quarter result atypical, given weaker play in the premium segment. Sands China President Grant Chum Kwan Lok pointed to growth in the number of guests and visits to the company's properties.
In the third quarter, VIP revenue barely changed, mass-market revenue fell 5.2%, and its share was 71.9%. The number of visitors in September rose by about 16%, but GGR per visitor dropped 15% to 5,616 patacas (about $695). CreditSights expects tourist traffic to remain the main driver, and a noticeable recovery in spending per visitor looks unlikely.
October data will show whether the bet on Golden Week paid off.
