A separate licence category for prediction markets has entered Kenya's 2026/27 licensing cycle. Peter Karimi, director of the Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA), set out the agency's position in an interview published on 18 October 2026. The agency has opened the licensing period for 2026/27, and several companies have already approached it about the new category.
No new law is needed for that. The current gambling control act of 2025 allows new categories to be added through subsidiary regulations, and it already lists licences for online bookmakers, online lotteries and online casinos.
The regulator classes prediction markets in Kenya as gambling. Karimi believes that forecasting future events does not require skill. Gambling, he said, is based on chance.
Existing rules already cover age verification, data access and payments. But the regulator pointed to difficulties with cross-border platforms, crypto payments and advertising that no one monitors. Which types of events will fall under the licence and how oversight will work has not been said yet.
5050 Markets, EvenMarket and Spreadhit already serve Kenyan users, although they hold no licence. Kenyan users already trade on their markets, while the operators have not received a licence. Kenya has not yet published licence conditions: details on the launch date and application requirements for a separate licence have not been announced.
For comparison, Liberia already licenses prediction markets, with rules in effect since 1 October 2026. The licence costs $80,000, and minimum paid-up capital is $500,000. Liberian rules ban contracts on the death of a named person, criminal activity and elections in Liberia.
The price of a Kenyan licence is not yet known, so it is too early to compare the costs of the two markets. The key question for operators already working in Kenya is which markets will be allowed. Without a list of event types, it is impossible to assess how much of the segment this will affect.
A parallel dispute is under way over GRA fees. The High Court allowed the regulator to apply the new licensing rules, including fee collection, while the case on their legality continues. The regulator has committed to refund all collected fees if the court finds the rules or fees unlawful. A ruling on the merits, scheduled for 2 October, has not been issued: the court did not announce the decision that had been expected on 2 October 2026.
The next step is GRA's subsidiary regulations. The regulator has not yet said when they will be published or what fees it will set for prediction markets.
