Economist Cesar Graffietti estimates that Brazil's betting ban will hit Flamengo, Corinthians and Palmeiras the hardest. Together, the three could lose about $130 million (695.5 million reais at the Central Bank of Brazil rate on October 28), or up to 26% of regular revenue.
The estimate covers sponsorship deals and bookmaker billboards at ten Serie A clubs with the largest contracts in the sector. It assumes Temporary Measure No. 1.394/2026 is in force. The measure bans the offer and advertising of fixed-odds bets across the entire country.
Flamengo stands to lose about $62.6 million (334.5 million reais), or 26% of regular revenue. Corinthians faces about $37.1 million (198 million reais), or 23%, and Palmeiras about $30.5 million (163 million reais), or 22%.
Graffietti believes clubs were not prepared for such losses. If the ban is lifted in December, the losses for the three biggest teams could be limited to 6%, by his estimate.
Clubs are already looking for replacements. Fluminense and São Paulo have started putting ads for sports statistics apps on their kits. Fabio Wolff of Wolff Sports believes it will be hard to fully make up the lost income, since bookmakers invested noticeably more in Brazilian football than companies from other industries.
Graffietti's calculations do not specify what will happen to the measure in December. For affiliates and operators working in the Brazilian market, it is important to watch the Congress decision on this measure.
