Australia's regulator ASIC published a statement on October 30, 2026, titled Prediction Markets, signed by Chair Sarah Court. The agency is not yet convinced that prediction markets for retail clients serve the public interest. It ties this position to section 798A of the Corporations Act 2001, which requires ASIC to consider the public interest when deciding whether to grant an Australian market licence.
According to Court, contracts on prediction markets have all the hallmarks of a bet. Outcomes are usually settled on an all-or-nothing basis and depend on a specific event that often has nothing to do with investment: rain on a given day, a team's win, the goal difference. The agency notes that this structure is close to binary options, which are banned for retail clients in Australia.
ASIC also points to risks to market integrity: misuse of confidential information, market manipulation, and disputes over how the outcome of an event is determined.
Australians who access overseas platforms directly receive no protection under Australian law. Financial firms holding an Australian licence that give access to such platforms remain bound by all their licence obligations.
The ban on issuing and distributing binary options to retail clients took effect on May 3, 2021, and was later extended to October 1, 2031. The regulator has said that up to 77% of retail clients lost money last year, and total losses reached AU$14 million (about US$10 million at the rate on November 2).
The statement does not introduce a ban on prediction markets and does not decide any licence application. At a parliamentary hearing on October 29, Court said no prediction market operator had applied for an Australian market licence. Any such application will be assessed against the public interest test.
