Trading volume on Polymarket has surpassed $1 million as traders wager on whether the U.S. Supreme Court will step into the ongoing dispute over Kalshi's sports event contracts. Implied odds for Supreme Court intervention spiked from 29% to 52% following a setback for Kalshi in federal appellate court, though the market places only a 6% chance on the justices accepting the case before October 31.
Circuit Split Triggers Supreme Court Speculation
The surge in trading activity follows a unanimous ruling by the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, which side with Nevada regulators seeking to halt Kalshi's sports prediction markets. The court held that federal commodities law does not automatically block individual states from enforcing local gambling statutes.
This decision directly conflicts with an earlier ruling from the Third Circuit:
- Third Circuit Position: Ruled in favor of Kalshi, holding that federal oversight takes precedence over New Jersey gambling laws.
- Ninth Circuit Position: Upheld state-level enforcement, allowing Nevada to restrict Kalshi's operations.
- Operational Impact: Kalshi's sports markets face state-level blocks in Nevada, Washington, and Michigan.
Such direct contradictions between federal appeals courts—known as a circuit split—frequently serve as the primary catalyst for Supreme Court intervention.
Legal Timeline and Challenges
Despite the rising odds, legal analysts note that the Supreme Court often avoids intervening during preliminary stages of litigation. Because both appellate decisions address emergency injunctions rather than final judgment on the merits, the justices may choose to delay review. Meanwhile, New Jersey faces a September 3 deadline to request a Supreme Court hearing on its Third Circuit loss.
